How is Probability of Success (POS) calculated?

The Probability of Success (POS) is calculated using the equation where POA (Probability of Access) is multiplied by POD (Probability of Detection). This multiplication reflects the relationship between the two probabilities, indicating that both components are necessary for overall success in a search operation. Specifically, for an operation to be successful, there must not only be access to the area where the subject may be located (POA), but there also needs to be a reliable detection of the subject once access is achieved (POD).

Multiplying these probabilities ensures that the overall POS takes into account both the likelihood of reaching an area and the likelihood of finding someone within that area, thus providing a more comprehensive assessment of the chances of success in a search and rescue mission. This method is based on the rule of probability for independent events, confirming that both must occur for the operation to succeed.